How can a society survive twenty-five years of exponential technology growth?
During the past twenty-five years, we have witnessed
a rate of progress in information technology
that seems beyond comprehension. An
increase in the characteristic parameters by a
factor of between one thousand and one million
has been the rule rather than the exception.
Progress in, for instance, the field of
transportation took centuries before a factor of
one thousand was accomplished: a horse cart,
an early automobile and a supersonic aeroplane
cover the distance of thirty kilometres in
one day, one hour, and one minute, respectively.
A factor of one thousand in only ten to
fifteen years thus means a real revolution. But
why can we apparently co pe so easily with
this exponential growth. How can we so easily
absorb and implement such progress without being confused
by its implications? My answer is that the perceived
progress, the increase in usefulness, is not exponential,
but linear. In other words, usefulness is a logarithmic
function of technology
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